The spreadsheet must be completed with at least 4 Comparable Acquisitions with Apple
Fill out the “DCF”, “NWC”, “WACC”, “A1” and “A2”
You need change the years in the template to recent years. The historical period should be 2017, 2018, 2019, then 2020.
THEN provide a written analysis as to the statistics.
Steps and how to calculate the statistics(FORMULAS)
Determine the company’s key performance drivers
Project cash flow – 5 years
Calculate the WACC
Determine terminal value
Calculate PV and Determine valuation
Determine Key Performance Drivers
Know your industry
Know the company
a) Sales growth
1) New products
2) Opening of stores
3) New markets
4) Market trends
5) Government influences
b) Expense growth
1) Sales growth
3) Start-up costs
c) Cap Expenditures
d) Working capital requirements
Want to make sure that year 5 of the projections is at a normal rate representative of the company’s normalized operations.
Make sure that there is a logic to the projection
a) Higher sales mean greater expenses, higher cap exp. And higher working capital
Operating expenses are usually based on historical operating margins.
S,G &A is usually based on historical % of sales
Expense margins are usually held constant unless there is something specific going on with the company
Free Cash Flow
Less: Taxes at the Marginal Rate
What we are trying to avoid is earnings that are benefitting from extraordinary low rates for that year. Want projections to be built based on taxes that are at a normalized rate.
What is the marginal tax rate or the normalized rate? – Look at the historical tax rate
Plus: Depreciation and amortization
Less: (Increase or decrease in net working capital)
Depreciation is usually estimated going forward as the existing level of depreciation plus a % of CAPEX or of sales.
Amortization usually lumped in with depreciation or estimated as a % of sales
Capital expenditures are shown on the cash flow statement
a) Usually, use the historical number and the historical growth rate
b) May be adjusted if there are anticipated changes in the company’s strategy, etc.
c) You usually revert back to the historical rates
Current assets (accounts receivable, inventory, prepaid expenses and other)
Current liabilities (accounts payable, accrued liabilities and other)
The growing company usually has working capital requirements – Sales growth causes an increase in inventory and accounts receivable
Can estimate net working capital as a whole but if possible the components of current assets and current liabilities are estimated and then put together
DSO (Days sales outstanding) = A/R / Sales x 365
Inventory Turns = COGS / Average Inventory
Prepaid and other current assets projected as a % of sales
DPO = Average A/P / COGS x 365
Other current liabilities and accrued liabilities projected as a % of sales
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
Rd x (1- t) x (total debt / total capitalization)
Re x (total equity / total capitalization)
The cost of debt is equal to the weighted average cost of each outstanding debt issuance. Where there are bond issues it the current yield to maturity of the bonds.
t is the current tax rate
Cost of Equity
Capital Asset Pricing Model
Rf + Beta x (market risk premium) = Cost of Equity
Market risk premium = 7.1%
Beta found on financial web sites. It is dependent on the capital structure of the company.
Rf is the yield to maturity of the 10 year US Treasury
Free Cash Flow
We need to look at the debt to total capital of comparable companies. If it is similar then you can use the beta for the company. If it is not then you need to go through the calculation of the average unlevered beta.
Usually derived based on the comparable company approach. Most often EBITDA x (EBITDA multiple)
Determine the Value
Calculate the PV of each projected cash flow
Remember to add terminal value to the last period. The terminal multiple is multiplied times the last 12 months results.
Add the PVs to get the value
Divide by the fully diluted number of shares to get the value per share
Usually, you create a chart of values with a number of different terminal values and WACCs
Then you need to pick the value that makes the most sense.
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